Iranian Overstretch?
In past we have heard remarks to the effect that the US military is overstretched, "broken" and the like. Below is a fair display of where the Army is deployed.
A brief comparison of economic strength would seem to be relevant:
The GNP of Iran (World Bank figure; 2004) is about US$155,329 million, or US$2,320 per capita.
US GNP (in 2000 dollars) was $11,433.6 billion (U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis 6/1/2006).
How about Population? US ~ 300,000,000. Iran ~ 67,500,000.
Crude overall measures of strength, to be sure. But why is it a persistent meme that the US is wearing itself out while Iran never even gets a passing glance? Iran is a theocratic despotism with substantial minority (Azeri, Arab) unrest, a young population that knows nothing of the "Revolution", and is a one-trick pony in economics - oil. She has extended herself into proxy (and direct intervention) in Iraq, Lebanon and Saudi Arabi. Her lack of domestic defense capabilities has made her a huge customer of Russia and China, and a partner with North Korea.
How long can Iran keep it up? Why isn't it that we are over-extending them, and they are wobbling? I posit this more as a series of questions - this will take me much more work to illustrate any points I hope to make. Perhaps a rainy weekend in the future...
A brief comparison of economic strength would seem to be relevant:
The GNP of Iran (World Bank figure; 2004) is about US$155,329 million, or US$2,320 per capita.
US GNP (in 2000 dollars) was $11,433.6 billion (U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis 6/1/2006).
How about Population? US ~ 300,000,000. Iran ~ 67,500,000.
Crude overall measures of strength, to be sure. But why is it a persistent meme that the US is wearing itself out while Iran never even gets a passing glance? Iran is a theocratic despotism with substantial minority (Azeri, Arab) unrest, a young population that knows nothing of the "Revolution", and is a one-trick pony in economics - oil. She has extended herself into proxy (and direct intervention) in Iraq, Lebanon and Saudi Arabi. Her lack of domestic defense capabilities has made her a huge customer of Russia and China, and a partner with North Korea.
How long can Iran keep it up? Why isn't it that we are over-extending them, and they are wobbling? I posit this more as a series of questions - this will take me much more work to illustrate any points I hope to make. Perhaps a rainy weekend in the future...
posted by LTC John at 9:39 PM
2 Comments:
Subsunk,
My father (former Navy petty in 1945 and a doc in the mid 1950s) always put it as "some sh&tbirds never get the word". I am sure that's what the gunner meant, right? I appreciate you keeping it G-rated here, heh heh.
The one trick pony may lose even that trick if we start squeezing oil from Rocky Mountain Shale:
http://www.Stansberry & Associates - Matt Badiali's Oil Report.mht
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